Abstract

Business decision makers operate in a world where there is a high degree of randomness and the future is ambiguous. There is a fundamental paradox in human behavior, the more unpredictable the world becomes, the more one seek out and rely upon forecasts and predictions to determine what one should do. It is not unreasonable to draw an analogy between weather forecasting under conditions of extreme uncertainty, and management's continuing interest in forecasting and planning activities in a highly uncertain trading climate. It is the contention that management's enchantment with the magical rites of long-range planning, forecasting, and several other future-oriented techniques is a manifestation of anxiety-relieving superstitious behavior, and that forecasting and planning have the same function that magical rites have. Anthropologists and psychologists have long argued that magical rites and superstitious behavior serve very important functions, they make the world seem more deterministic and give confidence in one's ability to cope, they unite the managerial tribe, and they induce everyone to take action, at least when the omens are favorable.