Abstract

This article focuses on ways and means of preparing regional business forecasts. First, a forecast of the business outlook for Los Angeles in. 1959 is presented to illustrate some possible procedures in forecasting. Then a more general discussion of forecasting procedures is offered together with some observations on how business management can make use of such regional projections. Employment in Los Angeles is expected to rise by about 100,000 in 1959, or about 4%, over 1958. Personal income and retail sales should be up about 8%. Three factors emerged from the analysis. First, Trends in the national economy. Second, construction activity in the Los Angeles area. Third, Defense spending in the Los Angeles area. The choice of these three key factors is the result of a comprehensive study, which sought to isolate the prime causal factors. Construction employment in Los Angeles represents 5.4% of total employment, but nationally it is only 4.3%. More important is the fact that Los Angeles construction has shown some sharp shifts and has at times moved counter to national trends.