Abstract

The article focuses on forecasting defense expenditures. Economic forecasting takes a special type of courage. Long-range forecasting of military expenditures takes a peculiar fortitude. So immeasurable are the uncertainties and so determining are they on outcome, that minor miscalculations about a few uncertainties are capable of creating extraordinary errors in final conclusions. For example, a relatively minor error concerning probability of war or disarmament will have an overwhelming effect on expenditure totals. time-span of ten years is not unusual for a long-range forecast of defense expenditures. Projections are sometimes attempted for even longer periods. In 1950, few could imagine an annual defense budget over $15 billion. Yet almost overnight, the level rose above $50 billion. Following the Korean War, how many people anticipated a continuing high level of military expenditures? Ten years ago, who correctly anticipated the major product mixes of today's defense spending? In fiscal year 1950, defense spending was less than 5 percent of Gross National Product.