Forecasting Metropolitan Growth

by Paul Wendt



There is a pattern to urban growth which makes it possible to forecast booms in industrial areas and spot high rent residential areas in the making. Underlying principles are topography, transportation and the uneasy dynamics of the high income class seeking better, more exclusive residential sites. Time maps, sector analyses, input-output forecasts are tools used to predict change in the megalopolis. The informed businessman is increasingly concerned with the urban-metropolitan environment within which he operates. Today metropolitan areas account for about sixty-three percent and by 1970 are expected to account for seventy percent of the population and working force. It has been estimated that three quarters of the Gross National Product will be produced in metropolitan areas by 1970. It is therefore essential for leaders in business and public life to be able to forecast accurately and well in advance of their actual occurrence probable patterns of population growth and land developments. It should be stated at the outset that forecasting the future metropolitan growth of an area presents a difficult problem and one that can be viewed as dual in nature.

California Management Review

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