Three Major Forces in the Stock Market

by John Shelton



The primary purpose of this paper is to focus attention on some statistics that relate to longer-range considerations than the intra-day studies of the New York Stock Exchange. Specifically, the aims of this article are to present in one study relevant information on the role of individuals and institutions in the stock market, and, in so doing, take a new look at the category "individuals" so that apparently conflicting evidence can be reconciled. The data concern yearly and semi-annual trends, not day-to-day trading, to provide a careful scrutiny of the statistics so that a determination can be made of the `validity of the data and collaterally, to offer conclusions as to the roles three major forces have played in the stock market's rise since 1958 and abrupt drop in the first half of 1962. A brief summary of the most plausible conclusions drawn from this study is presented. Much of this paper is devoted to presenting the statistics, assessing their reliability, and seeking a reconciliation of figures that appear contradictory, the implications of the analysis may be, for many readers, the most interesting element.

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