Abstract

The article focuses on the forecast of a minor recession in the year 1963, or a marked slowdown in the rate of economic expansion of the U.S. It was made at the eleventh Annual University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), California, Business Forecast. These forecasts are the consensus of sixteen faculty members of the UCLA Graduate School of Business Administration. The sixteen faculty members participating in the forecast have a wide range of interests and experience. In addition to teaching, they have served as members of governmental agencies and as consultants and officers of business enterprises. This group has a excellent record for business predictions and has correctly forecast the direction in the change of Gross National Product each year. Although the faculty forecasts calls for GNP and employment to increase some what for the year 1963 as a whole, the economy is expected to remain near levels reached at the end of 1952 though the first half of next year. Unemployment is expected to increase in the first half of 1963.