Forecasting Employment and Industrial Location in the San Francisco Bay Area

by Michael Goldberg, Gerald Walter



This article examines the results of the Bay Area Simulation Study (BASS) to forecast the patterns of regional growth and spatial location, conducted by the Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics. BASS is an exercise in the applied art of economic forecasting. The findings which are presented are the product of a relatively complex quantitative simulation model designed to be run on the Berkeley Computer Center's IBM 7094 computer. Industry aggregates forecast shows the magnitude of total employment and its percentage distribution among major industry groups. The forecasts generated in BASS exhibit rates of growth which exceed those forecast for California employment and population, for the United States population, and even for the Bay Area population, especially for 1970-1975.

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