California Management Review

Abstract

This study examines the accuracy of growth market forecasts published in the business press between 1960 and 1979. Many of these forecasts failed because they did not consider fundamental aspects of the markets they sought to serve but were enamored of the underlying technologies or unduly swayed by the "spirit of the times. " Successful forecasts were based on simple, but correct, assumptions regarding the future and focused on costs and performance advantages. This article presents categories describing the general reasons why some forecasts succeeded, while others failed, and offers some guidelines for managers to better assess current predictions of market growth and to avoid the pitfalls of the past.

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