California Management Review

Abstract

This article describes five straightforward approaches to improving managers' repetitive forecasts and illustrates them in the context of forecasting advertising page sales for Time magazine. Simple forecasting models are at the heart of each approach and all five alternatives outperformed experienced managers at Time Inc. The article then discusses ten common objections to modeling that are often raised by managers and offers rebuttals to each one. It concludes by discussing organizational incentives that managers may have to oppose modeling efforts in their areas of expertise and offers some practical advice about using models in managerial settings.

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