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Planning & Forecasting

Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell

Peter Cornelius, Alexander Van de Putte, Mattia Romani

ArticleIn-Depth
Abstract
Major shifts in the business environment can make whole investment strategies obsolete. In order to anticipate such shifts, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies uses scenario analysis, a method it pioneered three decades ago. Given that most investments are irreversible, scenario planning can be combined with real options analysis to help identify options in the future; help time the decision to exercise a real option; and provide an important input in the process of evaluating real options.
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Fall 2005

Volume 48
Issue 1


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California Management Review

Published at Berkeley Haas for more than sixty years, California Management Review seeks to share knowledge that challenges convention and shows a better way of doing business.

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